NOAA Counted More Gray Whales This Year. Why Did the Point Vicente Patio See So Few?

In July 2026, NOAA Fisheries put the Eastern North Pacific gray whale population at 17,750 animals. The previous season's estimate was 12,890, so that is a jump of roughly 38 percent in one year. Two months earlier, on the patio of the Point Vicente Interpretive Center, the volunteer census team closed its 42nd season with the lowest northbound gray whale count in its history.

Both counts are accurate, and both describe the same migration. The difference between them is a question about where the whales are swimming. Rancho Palos Verdes has a volunteer team watching that question from 31501 Palos Verdes Drive West, and they go back on watch December 1, 2026.

Four Seasons of Patio Numbers

The American Cetacean Society Los Angeles chapter has run a full-season gray whale census every year since 1984. Point Vicente has been its main station since the 1985–86 season. Trained volunteers watch from the patio with binoculars every day during daylight hours, from December 1 through late May. ACS/LA calls them The People Who Count.

These are the final tallies for the past four seasons, with NOAA's population estimate shown for the two most recent years:

The patio total for 2025–26 rose slightly over the season before. The southbound count of 214 was the project's second-lowest ever, behind only the 130 recorded in 2024–25. The northbound count of 445 set a new record low. Over the past three seasons, the number of whales seen passing the Peninsula on the way back to the Arctic has fallen from 755 to 445. That is a drop of about 41 percent, during the same period in which the federal estimate went up.

What NOAA Says About Its Own Number

NOAA's estimate comes from a different site and a different method. From January 5 to February 13, 2026, observers at Granite Canyon on the central California coast counted an estimated 2,563 southbound-season whales, with a single-day high of 158 on January 19. A model then turns those counts into a population figure.

The technical memo urges caution about its own result. It sets the highest growth rate gray whales can biologically sustain at about 6.2 percent a year. The jump from 2024/25 to 2025/26 is well above that, and it happened while calf production stayed low. The authors conclude that "factors other than demographic events" must be affecting how many whales are counted off central California. Possible causes include sampling error, changes in detection, and changes in migratory behavior.

Aimee Lang is a research scientist who helps lead the federal counts. In NOAA's July 2026 feature story on the estimate, she described the open question this way:

"We know that we don't see every whale. One of the questions raised by our most recent count is whether we see a consistent proportion of the population every year, or whether other factors affect how much of the population we see and count."

The same NOAA story says many gray whales stranded along the West Coast in spring 2026 before they reached their Arctic feeding grounds, and some were thin or emaciated. Strandings over the past two years have risen back into the range seen during the 2019–2023 Unusual Mortality Event. NOAA says they do not yet meet the criteria for declaring a new one.

Why the Patio Can Disagree With the Model

ACS/LA states clearly that its count covers only the nearshore migration and a small share of all gray whales. It is not a population estimate, and changes in route or weather can move the numbers a lot. That limitation is also what makes the patio count useful for the Peninsula. It records how many whales actually pass within sight of this coastline.

NOAA has raised one possible explanation. In recent years, dozens of gray whales have left their usual north-south route to spend time in San Francisco Bay and other places along the coast, possibly looking for food. The agency says it is not yet clear how that affects the annual counts. If more whales are spreading out, lingering, or traveling farther offshore, a population model and a fixed shoreline station could easily move in opposite directions.

Daily numbers on the patio stayed low. In a Spectrum News report from July 9, 2026, ACS/LA Census Director Alisa Schulman-Janiger said sightings improved slightly over the previous season but remained very low. She put the season's best single day at roughly 30 whales. Granite Canyon's best day of the 2026 survey was 158.

The Calves Are the Figure to Watch

The patio's one encouraging result in 2025–26 involved newborns. Volunteers logged 17 southbound calves after recording none at all in 2024–25. Calves made up 7.9 percent of the southbound count. On the northbound leg, the 16 calves were more than the previous season's record low of 8, raising the calf share from 1.6 percent to 3.6 percent. Schulman-Janiger summed up the season as "cautious optimism."

Federal figures put those calves in context. NOAA's most recent calf estimate is 85 calves in 2025, the lowest on record, and the agency says calf production has stayed low since 2019. In Baja California, the weekly counts posted by Gray Whale Research in Mexico showed zero mother-calf pairs at Laguna San Ignacio on March 10, 2026, and zero in Bahía Magdalena on March 4, 2026. Those are single-day snapshots, but they match the low federal calf numbers more closely than they match a population growing by 38 percent.

A sharp rise in the population estimate would normally come with a rise in calves. Calf counts are still near historic lows, so the 43rd season's patio count of mothers and calves is one of the clearest local measures of whether the higher federal estimate reflects more whales or just a different way of counting them.

Season 43 on the Patio

The census team will return to the Point Vicente Interpretive Center patio on December 1, 2026. The museum and gift shop are open daily from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. The grounds are open from dawn to dusk, and picnic areas are first come, first served. The City describes the museum's exhibits as focused especially on Pacific gray whales. Lower Point Vicente is part of the Palos Verdes Nature Preserve, and park rules prohibit going down to the beach there.

These dates in the coming months are a good guide for when to visit the bluffs:

1. November 22: Los Serenos de Point Vicente leads a nature walk at Vicente Bluffs Reserve and Pelican Cove, just down the coast from the interpretive center.
2. December 1: The 43rd census season begins on the patio.
3. December 19: Los Serenos walks Agua Amarga Reserve from the Posey Trailhead.
4. January: Southbound counts have peaked in recent seasons, with the busiest week falling on January 7–13 in 2021–22 and January 25–31 in 2024–25.
5. Late February through mid-March: Northbound peaks have fallen in this window, including February 28 to March 6 in 2021–22 and March 15–21 in 2024–25.
6. April into May: Mothers and calves travel north in a separate pulse that ACS/LA says usually comes 4 to 8 weeks after the main one, giving calves more time to nurse in the Baja lagoons. In 2021–22, the census peaks for cow-calf pairs were April 6–12 and April 27 to May 3.
7. Late May: The season closes. Last season ended May 25.

A day with few or no gray whales can still bring other sightings. The team's species log includes fin and humpback whales, common and bottlenose dolphins, California sea lions, and harbor seals. On the last day of the 42nd season, the volunteers saw no gray whales. They did watch a probable fin whale, a humpback, and a foraging minke whale working the edges of fish boils about a mile offshore, along with more than a dozen groups of feeding common dolphins.

Residents who want to do more than watch can volunteer with the census. ACS/LA lists Census Director Alisa Schulman-Janiger as the contact, at [email protected]. In a past season report, the project said no experience was needed, training took place on site in December, and Cabrillo Whalewatch training was recommended. Arrangements for the 2026–27 season can be confirmed with the director. In January 2025, the chapter marked Schulman-Janiger's 40 years leading the project. The interpretive center also hosts the City's Whale of a Day festival, which ran for the 41st time on April 25, 2026, after a rain forecast moved it from April 11.

The view from the Point Vicente patio is part of why so many people value Rancho Palos Verdes, and the community has kept a careful record of it for more than four decades. If you live on the Peninsula and are thinking about how a coastal home fits your plans, John Morgenstern knows these bluffs and would be glad to talk it through. Let's Connect.